Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 3.238801 3.901636 4.643774 5.533020 6.566122 7.724959 9.119494
2025-03-23 2.259933 3.089420 4.119447 5.479033 7.211264 9.328072 12.091960
2025-03-30 1.589175 2.432244 3.578702 5.222251 7.483101 10.444331 14.568826
2025-04-06 1.221416 2.064651 3.305152 5.212087 8.006738 11.878491 17.555374
2025-04-13 0.955349 1.770490 3.058857 5.166824 8.432351 13.180545 20.452578
2025-04-20 0.826149 1.657188 3.053198 5.459220 9.360006 15.257894 24.610520
2025-04-27 0.706410 1.529127 2.993515 5.643148 10.122846 17.141207 28.624876
2025-05-04 0.623744 1.448095 2.994627 5.917390 11.045363 19.332875 33.265999
2025-05-11 0.518124 1.296074 2.838684 5.888842 11.447525 20.718794 36.736957
2025-05-18 0.412839 1.117589 2.598355 5.665763 11.476006 21.479029 39.238138
2025-05-25 0.324180 0.951896 2.350681 5.386385 11.360080 21.968026 41.304024
2025-06-01 0.273915 0.864059 2.248165 5.374488 11.728682 23.309665 44.888041
2025-06-08 0.232470 0.789039 2.163596 5.394462 12.173766 24.847529 48.970588
2025-06-15 0.195591 0.715651 2.069007 5.379200 12.547302 26.285934 52.984076
2025-06-22 0.154005 0.614514 1.886391 5.139408 12.434368 26.804487 55.369798
2025-06-29 0.130274 0.560590 1.811414 5.133998 12.806535 28.268419 59.584218
2025-07-06 0.109058 0.507282 1.726588 5.090960 13.089701 29.575090 63.581975
2025-07-13 0.101887 0.501856 1.773683 5.380262 14.134889 32.467551 70.777245
2025-07-20 0.092084 0.483069 1.778540 5.562114 14.952939 34.953687 77.325827
2025-07-27 0.085644 0.475542 1.815679 5.833037 16.000585 37.977960 85.095306
2025-08-03 0.072809 0.435868 1.745151 5.804872 16.340809 39.548929 90.064995
2025-08-10 0.058189 0.381017 1.612736 5.584568 16.194052 40.073588 92.953348
2025-08-17 0.045347 0.327279 1.469672 5.308676 15.876408 40.198624 95.020820